17 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1683
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chuhai
SC
🇺🇦Serhii Chuhai
ELO 1706
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Aristarkhov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (39)
Fair odds · Chuhai
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H16-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.