17 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1523
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kolesnykov
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1521
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kolesnykov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H11-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.