17 Jul · 07:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1726
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1641
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany🌟Molochko goes over total as favourite 64% (77)
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H99-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (99-48)