17 Jul · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1611
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dobias
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1546
FormLWWWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Dobias rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (105)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H26-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-19)