17 Jul · 11:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1530
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Bondarchuk
OB
🇺🇦Oleksandr Bondarchuk
ELO 1577
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kozachuk🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 65% (91)
Fair odds · Bondarchuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)