17 Jul · 11:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1530
FormLLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Zeniuk
DZ
🇺🇦Dmytro Zeniuk
ELO 1607
FormWWWLW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kozachuk🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 65% (91)
Fair odds · Zeniuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H38-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-15)