17 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1574
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1611
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rochowanski🌟Rochowanski covers set handicap as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.