17 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1565
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Karpenko
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Solomko
ELO 1545
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Solomko🌟Solomko covers set handicap as underdog 65% (120)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.