17 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1523
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Martyniuk
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1542
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolesnykov🌟Martyniuk goes over total as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.