17 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotiash
ELO 1577
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1586
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.