17 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1574
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rochowanski
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1546
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Rochowanski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (17)
Fair odds · Rochowanski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.