18 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VB
🇺🇦Volodymyr Burylov
ELO 1588
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chalupa
JC
🇺🇦Josef Chalupa
ELO 1615
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Burylov🌟Burylov covers set handicap as underdog 70% (40)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.