19 Jul · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Andrii Lushchyk
ELO 1741
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lushchyk
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1695
FormWWLWW
55%
45%
🌟Aristarkhov covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Lushchyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H38-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-27)