19 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1374
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Semenets
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1358
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Semenets rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (69)
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H13-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.