19 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1467
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kotrbacek
PK
🇺🇦Petr Kotrbacek
ELO 1507
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kotrbacek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H12-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.