19 Jul · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Shyshman
ELO 1525
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tymofeev
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1572
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)