19 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1459
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Napirko
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1429
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 63% (105)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H25-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.