19 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1433
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baranskyi
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1445
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Baranskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.