19 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1410
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kotyk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1472
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)