19 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1459
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Napirko
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1440
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 63% (124)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H33-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.