19 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1541
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Svitac
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1504
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 71% (72)
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
Elo Gap+37
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.