19 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1433
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stukalov
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1449
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Stukalov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Stukalov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H7-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.