19 Jul · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1433
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Skhabitskiy
SS
🇺🇦Sergii Skhabitskiy
ELO 1437
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Skhabitskiy
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 27% · 3.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.