19 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1473
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Novakov
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1449
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Stukalov covers set handicap as underdog 62% (96)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H16-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.