19 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1459
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotyk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1472
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.