19 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KJ
🇺🇦Karel Jirousek
ELO 1456
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Plyska
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1467
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jirousek🌟Plyska rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (56)
Fair odds · Plyska
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H13-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.