19 Jul · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MV
🇺🇦Milan Vydra
ELO 1424
FormWLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Holub
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1472
FormLLLLW
45%
55%
🌟Vydra covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H15-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-14)