19 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1358
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ponomarenko
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tkalich
ELO 1332
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tkalich🌟Ponomarenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (31)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~70 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H18-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.