19 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1440
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kotyk
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1472
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Mitla covers set handicap as underdog 63% (124)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.