19 Jul · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1514
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Abraham
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Dvoracek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (39)
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.