19 Jul · 11:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1572
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1582
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Tymofeev stays under total as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.