19 Jul · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1501
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novak
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1517
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shchegelskyi🌟Shchegelskyi covers set handicap as underdog 65% (55)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H26-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.