19 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Valeriy Melnik
ELO 1610
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Melnik
RC
🇺🇦Roman Cherevko
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Melnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H85-71
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.