19 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1410
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mitla
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1440
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov🌟Mitla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (47)
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H48-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.