19 Jul · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Anton Danylov
ELO 1270
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Novik
DN
🇺🇦Dmytro Novik
ELO 1358
FormLWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Novik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)