19 Jul · 19:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1536
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Schmidtmayer
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Karpisek
ELO 1531
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.