19 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VI
🇺🇦Volodymyr Ivasiv
ELO 1487
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Novak
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1517
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ivasiv
Fair odds · Novak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H51-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.