19 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1440
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mitla
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1429
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Mitla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (47)
Fair odds · Mitla
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H42-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.