19 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvoracek
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1477
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Dvoracek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.