19 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1473
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Novakov
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1445
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Baranskyi stays under total as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.