19 Jul · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotyk
ELO 1472
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kotyk
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1429
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 63% (105)
Fair odds · Kotyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)