19 Jul · 13:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1541
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Svitac
TH
🇺🇦Tomas Hanke
ELO 1538
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanke🌟Hanke covers set handicap as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.