19 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1514
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Abraham
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1477
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.