19 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1374
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Semenets
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tkalich
ELO 1332
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tkalich🌟Semenets rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (69)
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.