19 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1504
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pavlik
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1546
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 71% (72)
Fair odds · Pavlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.