19 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TH
🇺🇦Tomas Hanke
ELO 1538
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavlik
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1546
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanke🌟Hanke covers set handicap as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Pavlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H11-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.