19 Jul · 19:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1501
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolos
YK
🇺🇦Yurii Kolos
ELO 1516
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Shchegelskyi covers set handicap as underdog 65% (55)
Fair odds · Kolos
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.