19 Jul · 19:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1545
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Parahailo
YP
🇺🇦Yurii Parahailo
ELO 1549
FormWLLWL
50%
50%
🌟Vorsuliak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (78)
Fair odds · Parahailo
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H20-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.