19 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1358
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ponomarenko
DK
🇺🇦Dmytro Kunchurov
ELO 1339
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kunchurov🌟Ponomarenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (31)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H26-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.