19 Jul · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1572
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tymofeev
BZ
🇺🇦Bohdan Zaika
ELO 1519
FormWWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H34-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-15)